91传媒 meteorologist: Dry air, other variables taking teeth out of Atlantic hurricane season
Contact: Carl Smith
STARKVILLE, Miss.鈥擠espite its unusually slow start, a Mississippi State meteorologist says not to rule out an increase in activity during the last months of the Atlantic Ocean鈥檚 hurricane season, a time each year concerned Mississippians monitor.
In May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters predicted an above-average level of activity鈥攕pecifically 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 MPH or higher, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes with wind speeds in excess of 74 MPH鈥攆or the storm season traditionally spanning June 1 to Nov. 30.
As of the end of August, however, only three named storms have emerged鈥擜lex, Bonnie and Colin鈥攁nd never intensified into hurricanes. While there is still a good chance the Atlantic Ocean will produce end-of-season Danielle, Earl and Fiona鈥攖he next three names on the World Meteorological Organization鈥檚 2022 hurricane list for the Atlantic Ocean鈥攊t likely will avoid appearances by others toward the end of the list.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not that uncommon to have a quiet July. But to have that extend into August where, in general, conditions tend to be more conducive? That鈥檚 weird,鈥 said Kimberly Wood, an 91传媒 Department of Geosciences associate professor of meteorology. 鈥淚t would be even more uncommon to have this quiet spell continue into September since this tends to be the peak of the season.鈥
Many of the conditions favorable to hurricane formation, including warm waters and atmospheric disturbances that can become storms, are currently present in the Atlantic Ocean, Wood said, but other factors鈥攖he movement of dry, dusty air from Africa鈥檚 Sahara Desert into regions where storms generally form, for example鈥攁re complicating the process.
鈥淭he energy is there, but those storms aren鈥檛 able to take advantage of it right now,鈥 she said. 鈥淎 lot of focus in recent years has been on the warm waters. High sea-surface temperatures were in place when we got Hurricanes Ida, Harvey and Dorian, but those warm waters, as we鈥檝e seen, do not guarantee a hurricane-level event.鈥
Activity could emerge soon, Wood said, as the climatological peak of the season鈥擲ept. 10鈥攁pproaches.
鈥淭he big things to watch: Does the dry air stick around, and does the vertical wind shear weaken? With an active monsoon over West Africa, we expect that to continue creating waves,鈥 she said. 鈥淥nce those waves emerge over water, are they moving through an environment that鈥檚 dry?
鈥淲ith many changing variables, it does make it more difficult to say that, given these conditions, X, Y and Z will happen. We know what happened in the past, but what鈥檚 happening now is different,鈥 Wood added. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 exactly know the implications of all of these variables until we get more observations to investigate what happened. It鈥檚 going to be a very well-studied season.鈥
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